12-20 July 2017
Asia/Seoul timezone
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BEXCO - Room F(201/202/203/204)

[SH156] Variations of the Cosmic Ray Fluxes as a Possible Earthquake Precursor


  • Magdalena KARPIEL

Primary authors



Despite considerable efforts in development of earthquake prediction algorithms, a well established and reliable earthquake prediction method has not been developed yet. The humanitarian loss and damage of physical properties following large earthquakes and their aftermaths are huge and for this reason the research and development efforts for earthquake prediction holds a very significant position in the field of geophysics. There are observations of significant change in the rate of low energy cosmic ray events right before large earthquakes, which opens up a strong possibility of earthquake prediction based on monitoring these event rates. While we can not be definitive about the theories behind correlation between variation of the event rates and occurrence of earthquakes, there are geophysical models which relate geomagnetic fields and local atmospheric pressure with seismic activities. For example, the geomagnetic field variation can be attributed to transient changes in geodynamo which can also hypothetically induce tectonic movements causing large earthquakes. The geomagnetic field variation changes the rate of cosmic rays arriving at the ground as well, which can serve as an earthquake precursor. Until recently, lack of adequate cosmic ray detectors available globally within a single network and the rarity of large magnitude earthquake events have limited the prospect of a thorough study of interrelationship between earthquakes and rate of cosmic rays. Data collected by the Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory (CREDO) - a recent collaborative effort to build a global network of all available cosmic ray detectors can be analyzed in realtime to near realtime to look for possible correlation between earthquakes and low energy cosmic ray flux. We present preliminary results from our study on cosmic ray flux variation based on relevant geophysical models and geomagnetic data, and possibility of using this variation as an earthquake precursor.