BEXCO - Room C(108)
[SH091] A simplified ab initio cosmic-ray modulation model: construction and predictive capabilities
A simplified ab initio approach is followed to model cosmic-ray modulation using a steady-state three-dimensional stochastic solver of the Parker transport equation. Standard diffusion coefficients based on Quasilinear Theory (QLT) and Nonlinear Guiding Center Theory (NLGC) are used. The spatial dependencies of turbulence quantities required as input for the drift and diffusion coefficients follow from parametric fits to results from a turbulence transport model. Effective values are used for the solar wind speed, magnetic field magnitude and tilt angle in the modulation model. The unusually high cosmic-ray intensities observed during the 2009 solar minimum follow naturally from the current model for most of the energies considered. This demonstrates that changes in turbulence contribute significantly to the higher than usual cosmic-ray intensities during the 2009 solar minimum. We also discuss and illustrate how this model can be used to predict future cosmic-ray intensities, and comment on the reliability of such predictions.